GOPideas... ideas done right

North Korea has made a habit of playing the west like a fiddle: agree to not pursue nuclear weapons and then continue to pursue them. Agree to be paid off with oil and food and then continue to counterfeit, drug deal and produce nuclear material. Even now, as American commentators discuss North Korea, they are always careful to note how little we know and how tenuous the situation is. 

Kim Jung Il and the rest of the North Korean power structure have played their weak hand brilliantly, consistently using their position as an impoverished, bankrupt and backward country (whose leadership might be nuts enough to push the button) to consistently garner concessions and goods from the rest of the world. This strategy is known as the "rationality of irrationality" or "madman theory." The theory is built on game theory, which provides theoretical models of human behavior in which participants attempt to maximize benefit and minimize loss.

In traditional game theoretical models, participants act rationally, which allows for outcomes to be easily predicted. When a participant (seemingly) does not act rationally, others have difficulty responding due to the other player's breaking of the strategic paradigm. North Korea has broken agreements, eschewed reality and knowingly violated treaties --- all seemingly irrational behaviors. Yet, since the global community is based on reciprocity and honor between nations, the world has been unable to deal with the North Koreans. 

The only country that has dealt with the North Koreans is China, which seems to have reached a strange détente in which China provides food and fuel to North Korea in exchange for North Korea ensuring that refugees do not flood into China. Thus, China controls the only levers of power that can affect North Korea --- and is unwilling to use them. And the United States is unwilling to call them out, for fear of upsetting the strategic balance. Thus, the United States is willingly allowing itself to be played: the Chinese are not forced to push North Korea, leaving only cutting off aid to North Korea as a bargaining chip --- and one that can only be played if North Korea is getting aid. In other words: North Korea either ends up with aid or no aid, but is never worse off for breaking its agreements --- which means it has no reason to alter their behavior, because they will never lose anything. 

The United States should change their behavior by siding with those who seek freedom in North Korea --- and use that as a bargaining chip between China and North Korea --- by announcing their intention to open a consulate in Dandong, China. This consulate would serve one purpose: to provide asylum for North Koreans fleeing their government. (Dandong is on the border between China and North Korea.) This will then put the Chinese government in the precarious position of explaining why they will send food and fuel to a regime persecuting its own people, yet will not allow the United States to open an office in Dandong. If the consulate is opened, then there is a magnet for North Korean defectors to flood into China. This flood of refugees is what both China and North Korea fear --- which is precisely why the United States should encourage it: because it puts the chip that North Korea and China fear most on the bargaining table --- and in the stack of the United States. By threatening to destabilize the region, both China and North Korea will quickly understand that the United States may not be able to force either party to its will, but could destabilize the situation in a manner that would be disastrous for both North Korea and China, but not affect the United States' interests. This would provide the leverage the United States needs to get the concessions it desires, while only risking a situation in which the Chinese could lose face on the international stage.

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